The Bank of Canada came out yesterday with thier latest economic forecast. The mainstream media has picked up on the story and has twisted it a bit by reporting that the Bank of Canada has declared an “end” to the recession. Let’s step back a bit.
Up until yesterday, the Bank of Canada has been one of the more pessimistic forecaster’s out there. If you read my log entry from June 29th where I reference a report from the Bank of Montreal’s Economics Department, they have been forecasting a return to economic growth in Quarter 3 of 2009 for quite some time now, as have many others. Here is the latest commentary from BMO on yesterday’s Bank of Canada report: http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/econofacts/20090723b/econofacts.pdf
So is the recession really over? No one really knows for sure yet, but our own central bank seems to think so. Quarter 2 numbers won’t be out yet for a few more weeks, and they will certainly still be negative. Remember, if it takes two negative quarters to declare a recession, it takes a couple of positive quarters before anyone can definitively declare it over.
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